When assessing the upcoming match between CSKA and Baltika, scheduled for September 30, 2023, several factors must be carefully analyzed. A string of draws against CSKA Moscow in recent times, despite generally favorable possession statistics, highlights the potential vulnerability to achieving a comfortable win even with a more intense and possibly grueling schedule. CSKA's recent matches have been characterized by a high number of goals scored and conceded, indicating an open style of play that contrasts with their typical historical strength and solid fan support, especially at home.
Baltika, despite being ranked lower and having fewer wins, has shown resilience, maintaining a relatively low scoring record in their matches, with the exception of a few sending-offs. This may indicate a defensive strategy for Baltika, which may conflict with CSKA's more aggressive, attacking approach.
When considering additional parameters such as ball possession and expected goals, it can be noted that CSKA's consistency in ball control does not always lead to actual goals. Shots on goal and total shots in previous matches, even if higher, resulted in a number of draws. Perhaps this is due to a more defensive or cautious playing style of the opponent, which Baltika may also adopt.
In recent matches, Baltika has demonstrated defensive reliability, scoring fewer goals and conceding fewer goals. Possession scores tend to be balanced, perhaps indicating a balanced approach to the game that does not place too much emphasis on attack or defense.
Event: Match outcome
Bid: Draw, CF 4. 05
Why: Watching the latest CSKA matches, you can notice a pattern of draws, which may be due to the team’s inability to take advantage of possession and shots on goal. There is a disproportion in the team’s game between expected and actual goals, which indicates the ineffectiveness of the implementation of opportunities. On the other hand, Baltika will most likely stick to a defensive strategy, not allowing the score to drop and making a draw a very realistic outcome.
Event: Total goals under 2.5
Bid: Total goals under 2.5, EF 1. 90
Why: The strength of the Baltika defense and its preference for a balanced game strategy indicate that the match will be low-scoring. Despite CSKA's aggressive play, Baltika's defensive resolve may limit the number of goals scored, making betting on the total under 2.5 attractive, and the statistics of Baltika's previous matches show a tendency towards low-scoring matches.
Combining Baltika's likely defensive strategy with CSKA Moscow's recent goalscoring problems, betting on total goals under 2.5 looks like the most balanced option, offering reasonable odds (EF 1.70) and less risk than other options, making it suitable and strategic.
Event: Individual total goals
Bid: CSKA individual total goals less 1.5, CF 2. 03
Why: CSKA's aggressive play did not always lead to goals scored due to the possible defensive position of the opponent. Baltika, playing in a reliable defense, can further suppress CSKA's scoring opportunities, which makes this bet quite justified, since CSKA has not been able to score many goals lately.