Prediction for the match: Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin

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Football
Germany: Bundesliga - Round 7
Borussia Dortmund
Place Bet
Union Berlin
7 October 2023
16:30
UTC+3
Completed 2 months ago
Total:
2/2
The best:
1/1
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Analysis:

Considering the latest results of both teams - Borussia Dortmund (referred to as Borussia D in the given data) and Union Berlin (Union Berlin), several conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, despite the fact that Borussia are one of the strongest teams in the Bundesliga, with a strong fan base and significant home support, Dortmund had a somewhat congested fixture list, especially in late September. This can lead to possible problems with fatigue. The Berlin Union, on the contrary, was not burdened with European games, which means it may be more fresh.

However, when it comes to form, Dortmund are in a better position, having won four of their last six matches. This contrasts with the two victories of the Berlin Union in the same period. It is interesting that, despite the contrast in form, both teams score on average about 3 goals per game, which suggests that their matches are quite productive.

In terms of specific metrics, Dortmund have a good shot conversion rate, especially when taking into account expected goals (xG) in the matches against Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg. Their xG suggests they were a bit lucky against Hoffenheim, but they largely dominated against Wolfsburg. But the Berlin Union, on the contrary, was less clinical. For example, despite a significantly higher xG in the match against Heidenheim, they were unable to convert their chances. Possession statistics also favor Dortmund: they had more possession in most matches.

Looking at other indicators, the number of corners shows that Dortmund wins more corners than Union Berlin. This is often a sign that the team is more attacking and is spending more time in the opponent's half.

Over the last few matches, both Dortmund and Union Berlin have shown a penchant for scoring goals. The average number of goals in their matches indicates a dynamic attacking strategy on both sides. Especially considering the powerful attack of Dortmund and the somewhat leaky defense of Union Berlin (10 goals conceded in 6 matches). This combination makes it likely that both teams will score. It is often said that form is temporary, but class is permanent. Given Dortmund's historical strength and Union Berlin's tenacity, a BTTS result seems likely.

Best Bet

Looking back on recent matches, Dortmund have consistently demonstrated attacking prowess, winning more corners than most of their opponents. This is a sign of a team that is constantly attacking, putting pressure on the opponent's defense. On the other hand, Union Berlin, having applied pressure, switches to a counter-attacking style of play. Counter-attacks often result in corners as the defending team builds pressure and then breaks back. Given the combination of both teams' playing styles and their history, a total of more than 9.5 corners seems more than achievable.

Considering the favorable odds and the analysis performed, the best bet would be Total Corners over 9.5, odds 1.85. It provides a decent return with balanced risk and, given the playing styles of both teams, is a statistically sound bet. Always remember that while statistics and analysis can help in decision making, betting always comes with risk.

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