Analyzing the statistics and results of the latest matches between Athletic Bilbao (Athletic) and Almeria (Almeria), we note several fundamental points:
The game schedule looks tight, especially for Athletic Bilbao, who played on September 30, just 6 days before the upcoming match. Such short breaks can affect the team's fatigue and its readiness for subsequent matches.
As for the tournament position, we are in the 9th round of La Liga. This stage of the season is still relatively early, but every point is crucial, especially for teams challenging for European places or trying to avoid relegation.
Athletic Bilbao is a team with a rich historical heritage in La Liga and a passionate following. Playing at home could give them an advantage thanks to the support of passionate fans. Almeria, on the other hand, has floated between La Liga and its second tier in recent years, making it an outsider.
Athletic's kit looks better than Almeria's. In the last 8 matches they scored 4 wins and 2 draws, scored 14 points and have a positive goal difference. Almeria, on the contrary, has not yet won a single match, gaining only 3 points from draws.
If we delve into the detailed statistics, we can note that Athletic has better possession of the ball, often being around 50%, which suggests that it is not so easy to dominate. Expected goals (xG) stats show they usually take their chances.
In defense, Athletic missed fewer shots on goal, which indicates a fairly reliable defensive line. On defense, Athletic conceded fewer shots on goal, which indicates the reliability of its defensive line.
If we look at additional indicators such as corner kicks, Athletic take on average around 5 corners per game, while Almeria only take 3. Another factor is yellow cards. Athletic's aggressive play results in an average of 2.5 yellow cards per match, suggesting a possible propensity for disciplinary action and potentially creating free-kick opportunities for Almeria. However, Almeria's penchant for falling offside can be exploited by Athletic's defense.
Athletic Bilbao's current form, home advantage and historical strength of the team make them favorites in this match. In addition, statistics showed the difference in the final stages of the game between the two teams. While Almeria struggle to convert their chances, Athletic Bilbao are more effective in attack. The fact that Athletic Bilbao is playing at home, where they usually perform better, gives more confidence to this bet.
Analysis shows that both teams, especially Almeria, do not score in matches. Almeria's ineffective performance and Athletic's solid defense suggest that there will be few goals in this match. The combined expected goals statistics for both teams also indicate that the match could go without a flurry of goals. All these factors together make betting on a total less than 2.5 goals quite reasonable.
This bet represents a good balance between risk and reward. Statistics tend to indicate that fewer goals will be scored in the match, and the odds are 2. 30 offers a decent price for bettors. Despite the medium risk, the combination of Almeria's ineffectiveness in attack and Athletic's strong defense makes this an attractive bet in terms of potential profit.