Firstly, if we analyze the latest results, it becomes obvious that Granada have problems with defense. Over the last eight matches they have conceded 21 goals, an average of more than 2.5 per game. On the contrary, Barcelona looks solid: they won six of their last eight matches, remained undefeated, scored 19 goals and conceded only 8. Possession statistics show that Barcelona often dominate, with more than 60% possession. Such possession of the ball leads to an increase in the number of shooting opportunities, as evidenced by Barcelona's shooting statistics.
Secondly, match congestion: Granada played five matches in September alone, which may have led to fatigue. At the same time, Barcelona played a Champions League match against Antwerp, which allows them to rotate the squad to manage the load on the players.
Given historical data, playing at Granada's home ground gives them some advantage, but Barcelona, given their experience, should not suffer much from away conditions. In addition, the last meeting between these teams ended in a draw, which suggests that Granada will be able to survive.
A combination of factors makes this bet attractive. Firstly, Granada have been weak defensively of late, conceding 21 goals in their last eight matches, an average of over 2.5 goals per game. On the other hand, Barcelona boast a strong attack, having scored 19 goals in their previous eight matches. This data suggests that we can expect a multi-goal game. Moreover, Granada's defensive qualities, combined with Barcelona's attacking prowess, suggest that the number of goals in the match could exceed two.
The reason for this choice is the balance between decent odds and calculated risk. Given the vulnerability of Granada's defense and Barcelona's high scoring record, odds of 1.53 offer a favorable potential outcome while being backed by a solid statistical base.
Despite Granada's shaky defense, its attack shows some promise. Granada scored goals in most of the last matches. Coupled with this, their last meeting with Barcelona ended in a 1-1 draw, highlighting Granada's ability to break through Barcelona's defense. Barcelona, showing consistent attacking form, are also likely to score. Thus, this bet assumes that both teams, given their track record and the context of the last meeting, will be able to score.