Freiburg have been showing mixed results lately, but it is noteworthy that they are not achieving victories in matches against top-level teams. The last match with Bayern - the leading team in the Bundesliga - was lost, which is not surprising. However, the significant xG difference suggests that Bayern could have scored even more. The statistics of the matches with Augsburg and Eintracht indicate a tight game in defense, but in the game with Augsburg Eintracht was somewhat lucky: with a lower xG indicator, they still achieved victory.
But Bochum, on the contrary, has not shown strong form lately. A heavy 7-0 defeat to Bayern indicates a weak defense, while expected goals indicate complete superiority over the opponent. The draw with Leipzig, another top-tier Bundesliga team, is an exception to the rule, as statistically Leipzig should have won. In terms of goals, Bochum look vulnerable, conceding 19 goals in just 7 matches. The offense also cannot compensate for this deficiency, scoring only 5 goals in the same period.
Freiburg have dominated the latest matches between these teams, winning 4 out of 5 meetings. This indicates a tactical or psychological advantage of Freiburg over Bochum.
Both teams have high-scoring matches, especially Bochum, who average 3.4 goals per match. Freiburg has a slightly lower figure - 2.9 goals per match. Considering the statistics of both teams, we can assume that the upcoming match will also be highly productive.
Both Freiburg and Bochum have shown an upward trend in the number of goals scored in recent matches. Of the last 7 matches, both teams played 4 games with more than 2.5 goals. Given this trend and taking into account the attacking potential of both teams, there is a high probability that more than 2.5 goals will be scored in this match. This bet strikes a balance between risk and reward. Both teams have shown a trend towards over 2.5 goals scored in their matches in recent matches. Given their current form and past matches, there is a strong argument that the upcoming meeting could follow a similar pattern.