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Completed 2 months ago
The upcoming match between Burnley and Chelsea in the Premier League is intriguing. Burnley have not been performing very well in the league lately, gaining only 4 points from 7 matches with a goal difference of -10. Chelsea, on the contrary, also does not shine with results, but is in a slightly more advantageous position, gaining 8 points with a positive goal difference.
Burnley's match history shows a penchant for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.1 goals per match. It is noteworthy that in 4 matches more than 2.5 goals were scored. This indicates a weak defense. Chelsea are playing a little more conservatively, scoring an average of 1.9 goals, with only 2 of their last 7 matches scoring over 2.5 goals.
Game-wise, both teams tend to create shots on goal. In terms of ball possession, Burnley once dominated Manchester United with 62%, which indicates the ability to control the game. However, this possession did not lead to a victory, which shows a lack of finishing skill. Chelsea, despite two recent defeats, had a higher xG (expected goals) in one of them, meaning they were unlucky not to score more.
Head-to-head statistics tilt in favor of Chelsea. The last meeting ended with a score of 4:0 in favor of Chelsea, but it should be noted that the previous matches were more intense.
Given Chelsea's relative strength, historical record and Burnley's shaky defence, it seems likely that Chelsea can prevail. However, given the unpredictability of football and Burnley's occasional superiority in the game, a landslide victory for Chelsea could be riskier than it seems.
| Event | Bet: | Odds | Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| They will score - they will not score | Both teams will score - Yes | 1.75 | Average |
Taking a deep dive into the statistics and recent form of both teams, several factors emerge. Burnley, despite their less advantageous position in the championship, show moments of dominating possession and creating scoring chances. The team is averaging 3.1 goals in recent matches and although their defense looks shaky, they are showing an ability to find the net. On the other hand, Chelsea, a team with a historically strong attacking line, constantly creates scoring chances, even in lost matches. Expected goals (xG) data suggests Chelsea could score more than they have in some matches. The combination of Burnley's defensive weaknesses and Chelsea's attacking power makes it highly likely that both teams will score.
This bet strikes a balance between good odds and average risk, making it an optimal choice. Both teams are capable of scoring and the totality of the evidence suggests that it is likely that each team will score. At odds of 1.75, this bet provides an attractive return on investment while maintaining reasonable risk.
| Event | Bet: | Odds | Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Total goals over 2.5 | 1.80 | Short |
Burnley's recent matches have been high scoring, with over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of their last 7 games. This suggests that, despite the vulnerability of the back line, they can pose a threat in attack. Chelsea, although not as prolific, are known for their strong attacking setup, capable of scoring multiple goals in a single match. Historically, when these two teams face off, there has been a tendency to score. Given Burnley's recent defensive struggles and Chelsea's attacking potential, it is likely that this match will see over 2.5 goals scored.
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