Prediction for the match: Baltica - Orenburg

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Football
Russia: Premier League - Round 11
Baltica
Place Bet
Orenburg
7 October 2023
16:30
UTC+3
Completed 4 months ago
Total:
1/2
The best:
0/1
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Analysis:

In the upcoming match, Baltika Orenburg meets Orenburg - two teams that have faced each other several times in the past. Interestingly, in previous meetings the advantage was on the side of Orenburg, which won most of the matches.

Baltika's latest form raises concerns. Over the last 10 matches they have only 2 wins with 7 losses and 1 draw. Against the backdrop of a slightly more prosperous Orenburg, where over the same period there were 3 victories, 2 draws and 5 defeats.

However, if you delve deeper into the statistics, you can see interesting nuances. Despite the defeats, Baltika played many, many matches in which expected goals (xG) were often close to or better than their opponents', hinting at some bad luck or poor finishing. Possession was competitive, rarely dominant, suggesting they could control the game. On the contrary, Orenburg, even when winning, often loses possession and relies heavily on counterattacks, as seen in the recent victory over Zenit.

Corner cards and yellow cards indicate aggressiveness and territorial dominance in the game. In recent matches, both teams have taken a sufficient number of corners, which indicates competitive play in the attacking third. Yellow card data suggests that Orenburg is playing more aggressively, which could be a decisive factor in the outcome of the match.

Best Bet
Event Bet: Odds Risk
Match outcome Draw 3.65 Short
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Given the extensive data, we see nuances in the game that are not visible at a superficial glance. Despite the latest defeats, Baltika shows stable form in the game. Possession statistics suggest they were competitive, rarely allowing their opponents to dominate. Such control over the course of the game contrasts with the fact that Orenburg relies on counterattacks even in winning matches. And past meetings between these teams suggest a tense fight. Therefore, a draw seems like a likely outcome. Given that the odds on a draw are usually higher, this is a good risk/reward proposition for bettors.

This outcome not only offers an attractive risk-revenge scenario based on statistical analysis, but also an odds of 3. 65 provides significant profit on a successful bet. Remember that it is important to consider not only the odds, but also the likely outcome. In this case, the match between the teams, their recent form, style of play and historical encounters indicate that a draw would be a favorable outcome. This bet strikes the right balance between risk and reward.

Analysis of teams' recent form and tactics reveals their scoring patterns. Although football is inherently unpredictable, both teams' goal averages suggest that the majority of their matches will not exceed the 2.5 goal threshold. Baltika's form, which has been more conservative with fewer goals, combined with Orenburg's counter-attacking style of play indicates the possibility of a low-scoring game. Thus, a bet on a total of less than 2.5 goals is quite safe and gives a good income, especially considering that the odds are around 1.95.

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